2025 has been marked by a US-led push for peace in Ukraine. While these peace efforts were ongoing, CIR found that Russia launched over 32,000 drones between 1 January and 28 August 2025, more than double the total recorded for the entire war up to that point. On 23 February 2025, 267 drones were launched in just 24 hours, setting a record that has since been broken 19 times – 728 were launched on 9 July alone. While strikes have targeted regions all over Ukraine, Russian forces advanced also over 1000 square km in Donetsk Oblast.
Record-breaking Russian strikes during peace negotiations
5 min read
Eyes on Russia
Heavily damaged university building, Sumy (Sumy Oblast), 18 August 2025 (Source: kordonmedia via Telegram)
With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine well into its third year, Russian strikes have reached unprecedented levels. Despite Russian engagement with peace efforts, CIR analysis reveals that the first six months of 2025 saw some of the highest levels of destruction and civilian harm since the start of the full-scale invasion.
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Graph showing annual figures for drones launched into Ukraine by Russia. Data obtained from the Ukrainian Air Force. (Source: CIR)
Map showing the spread of all CIR-verified incidents between 1 January 2025 and 28 August 2025. (Basemap source: Esri, Michael Bauer Research GmbH 2022, State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Eurostat | Humanitarian Data Exchange; data source: CIR).
This year’s renewed push for peace began with US-led talks in Riyadh in February 2025. President Putin then rejected a US-proposed 30-day ceasefire mooted in March, before unilaterally declaring two temporary ceasefires in April and May, both of which attracted scepticism for their short duration and for lacking the precise terms usually stipulated in a ceasefire. These ceasefires were followed in June by a further round of talks held in Istanbul. A third talk was held in July which lasted less than an hour. Critics noted that the 8 May ceasefire coincided with Russia’s Victory Day parade, and therefore could have been timed to avoid the political embarrassment of Ukrainian strikes. Most recently, President Putin and President Trump met for face-to-face talks in Alaska, which ended with President Trump dropping his demand for a ceasefire in place of seeking a permanent peace deal.
The intense strikes that have continued amid these talks have ushered in yet higher levels of death and destruction in Ukraine. Between 1 January and 30 June, CIR verified at least 945 incidents* of civilian harm and damage to civilian infrastructure resulting from Russian strikes. When compared to the 798 incidents CIR verified for the second half of 2024, this represents an extra month’s worth of strikes over the same timeframe, an 18.4% increase.
Graph showing average monthly numbers of CIR-verified incidents throughout Ukraine over successive six month intervals from the start of CIR monitoring in May 2022 to April 2025 (Source: CIR).
As the timeline below shows, CIR analysis reveals that Russian strikes have continued throughout major milestones in the peace process.
Senator Marco Rubio attends a meeting with Russia and Saudi Arabia, 18 February. (Source: U.S. Department of State from United States, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
18 February 2025: Saudi peace talks
Delegations from the US and Russia met in Riyadh for the first high level talks between the countries since 2 March 2023.
Between 18 and 24 February, CIR verified 10 incidents of civilian harm and 49 incidents of damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air force reported the launch of 1,278 drones and seven missiles by Russia.
Damage to a children’s health camp in Sumy (Sumy Oblast), 18 February 2025 [50.948677, 34.835767] (Source: kordonmedia via Telegram)
Damage to a bus station in Kherson (Kherson Oblast), 20 February 2025 [46.656868, 32.607249] (Source: suspilnekherson via Telegram)
Damage to a church in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), 23 February 2025 [47.981666, 33.424696] (Source: nachasi_news via Telegram)
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Saudi Arabia, 10 March 2025. (Source: The Presidential Office of Ukraine (https://www.president.gov.ua/) CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/))
11 March 2025: US ceasefire proposal
The US proposed a 30-day ceasefire on 11 March 2025, which was immediately and unconditionally accepted by Ukraine. President Putin rejected the deal, saying he agreed with the “idea” of a ceasefire but noted it would need to “remove the root causes of this crisis”.
Between 11 and 17 March, CIR verified eight incidents of civilian harm and 31 incidents of damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 845 drones and seven missiles by Russia.
Burning hospital in Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast), 14 March 2025 [50.268757, 35.981519] (Source: donbass24_7 via Telegram)
Destroyed school buses at a heavily damaged school in Bohodukhiv (Kharkiv Oblast), 15 March 2025 [50.159122, 35.515892] (Source: Suspilne Media)
Destroyed supermarket, Pokrovsk (Donetsk), 17 March 2025 [48.266127, 37.181260] (Source: kapridnua via Telegram)
The Dnipro Hydroelectric Dam following a Russian strike on 22 March 2024. (Source: Telegram)
25 March 2025: Energy moratorium
On 25 March 2025, Russia revealed it had agreed to a US-proposed moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure, set to last for 30 days from 18 March. CIR did not verify any incidents of damage to energy infrastructure during this period, despite claims to the contrary from both sides.
Between 18 March and 18 April, CIR verified 33 incidents of civilian harm and 128 incidents of damage to non-energy civilian infrastructure, however. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 3,158 drones and 52 missiles by Russia during the moratorium.
Heavy damage to a school in Samotoivka (Sumy Oblast), 19 March 2025 [50.804307, 35.153203] (Source: kordonmedia via Telegram)
Damage to a remembrance memorial in Pechenihy (Kharkiv Oblast), 23 March 2025 [49.864703, 36.931844] (Source: suspilne_kharkiv via Telegram)
Destroyed Palace of Culture in Borova (Kharkiv Oblast), 27 March 2025 [49.378020, 37.626861] (Source: donbass24_7 via Telegram)
Orthodox church spire. (Source: The Presidential Office of Ukraine (https://www.president.gov.ua/) CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/))
19 April 2025, President Putin declares unilateral ceasefire
On 19 April, Russia declared a unilateral ceasefire for 19 to 21 April. President Zelenskyy called for Russia to be pressured to instead commit to a 30-day ceasefire.
Between 21 and 27 April, CIR verified six incidents of civilian harm and 46 incidents of damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 795 drones and 76 missiles by Russia.
Heavily damaged apartment block in Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), 22 April 2025 [47.814366, 35.196632] (Source: five_redakcia via Telegram)
Damage to a bus in Marhanets (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), 23 April 2025 [47.647420, 34.653808] (Source: dsns_telegram via Telegram)
Emergency workers following a strike on a residential area in Kyiv (Kyiv Oblast), 24 April 2025 [50.460629, 30.382080] (Source: novynylive via Telegram)
Moscow, Ustyinsky Bridge, Victory day flags, May 2025 (Source: Retired electrician, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons)
8 May 2025: Victory Day ceasefire
On 28 April, President Putin declared a second unilateral ceasefire for 8 to 11 May, which coincided with Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha counter-proposed an immediate 30-day ceasefire, but the proposal was not taken up.
In the following week – between 11 and 17 May – CIR verified four incidents of civilian harm and 15 incidents of damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 655 drones and one missile by Russia during the same period.
Heavily damaged school in Richky (Sumy Oblast), 9 May 2025 [51.119319, 34.493960] (Source: kordonmedia via Telegram)
Damage to St. Michael’s Church in Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast), 13 May 2025 [48.281148, 37.178804] (Source: kapridnua via Telegram)
Shahed drone striking a farm in Novofedorivka (Donetsk Oblast), 17 May 2025 [48.434192, 36.975802] (Source: Operatyvnyi_Donbas via Telegram)
Zelenskyy arriving in Turkiye, 15 May 2025. (Source: The Presidential Office of Ukraine (https://www.president.gov.ua/) CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/))
Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul for their first face-to-face talks since 2022. According to unnamed Ukrainian officials, Russia’s conditions for a ceasefire included the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from territory not controlled by Russia in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts. The talks ended without a ceasefire agreement.
Between 16 and 22 May, CIR verified four incidents of civilian harm and 24 incidents of damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 871 drones and one missile by Russia.
Destroyed bus in Bilopillya (Sumy Oblast), 17 May 2025 [51.069388, 34.457033] (Source: news_sumy24 via Telegram)
Destroyed bridge in Yamne (Sumy Oblast), 20 May 2025 [50.420693, 35.405052] (Source: Suspilne Media)
Damage to a market in Bilopillya (Sumy Oblast), 20 May 2025 [51.1500924, 34.312378] (Source: news_sumy24 via Telegram)
Metropolitan Istanbul (Source: Mostafameraji, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons)
2 June 2025: Second round of Istanbul talks
During the second round of talks in Istanbul, the Russian delegation repeated its demands for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from territory not controlled by Russia in exchange for a ceasefire. Russia also proposed an alternative “package proposal”, including the demobilisation of the Ukrainian military and a halt to Western arms shipments and intelligence support in exchange for a ceasefire.
Between 2 and 8 June, CIR verified 13 incidents of civilian harm and 47 incidents of damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 1,043 drones and 62 missiles by Russia.
Damage to a bioethanol production plant in Budylka (Sumy Oblast), 4 June 2025 [50.500393, 34.439565] (Source: kordonmedia via Telegram)
Partially destroyed veterinary clinic, Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), 7 June 2025 [48.396202, 35.000579] (Source: dnepr_operativ via Telegram)
An emergency worker tends to the injured following a strike in Kharkiv (Kharkiv Oblast), 7 June 2025 [50.021267, 36.251956] (Source: zoda_gov_ua via Telegram)
Istanbul (Source: Ian Murdock CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1230089)
23 July 2025: Third round of Istanbul talks
During the third round of talks in Istanbul, a prisoner swap was agreed between the two sides, with the talks ending after less than an hour.
Between 23 and 29 July, CIR verified four incidents of civilian harm and 18 incidents of damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 887 drones and 42 missiles by Russia.
Heavily damaged sports complex, Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), 23 July 2025 [47.840468, 33.338358] (Source: 1kr.ua)
Heavily damaged apartment block, Odesa (Odesa Oblast), 24 July 2025 [46.476954, 30.721109] (Source: suspilneodesa via Telegram)
Damaged boiler house, Kharkiv (Kharkiv Oblast), 26 July 2025 [50.049417, 36.278898] (Source: suspilne_kharkiv via Telegram)
President Trump and President Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska on August 15, 2025 (Source: The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
15 August 2025: Face to face meeting between President Trump and President Putin
President Trump and President Putin met for peace talks in the first face to face meeting of President Trump’s second term. Following the meeting, President Trump dropped his demand for President Putin to agree to a ceasefire and instead committed to securing a permanent peace deal, without a ceasefire in the interim.
Between 15 and 21 August, CIR verified six incidents of civilian harm and 29 incidents of damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of 1,319 drones and 59 missiles.
Damage to Sumy Central Market, Sumy (Sumy Oblast), 15 August 2025 [50.912769, 34.795245] (Source: kordonmedia via Telegram).
Heavily damaged university building, Sumy (Sumy Oblast), 18 August 2025 [50.890865, 34.841935] (Source: kordonmedia via Telegram)
Partially destroyed school, Vasylkivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), 19 August 2025 [48.217666, 36.011607] (Source: suspilnednipro via Telegram)
What next for Ukraine?
It has been 171 days since Ukraine unconditionally accepted the US-proposed ceasefire on 11 March 2025. Since then, Russia has continued to strike Ukraine – CIR verified 664 incidents of damage to civilian infrastructure and 145 incidents of civilian harm between 11 March and 29 August.
President Trump is now in favour of a permanent peace deal after dropping his demand for a ceasefire on 15 August. These deals take longer to negotiate and, as the last eight months have shown, Russia will likely continue to strike Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure until such an agreement is reached, with civilians paying the heaviest price.
Less than a week after the Alaska meeting, Russia struck a US electronics firm in Zakarpattia Oblast, Western Ukraine. Notably, this was the first strike CIR has verified in Zakarpattia Oblast; CIR has now verified damage to the civilian infrastructure of every single oblast in Ukraine. On 28 August in Kyiv, two Russian missiles struck the British Council building and the EU Delegation building was damaged by the shockwave.
CIR continues to monitor the situation.
*Figures do not include verified damage to residential, commercial or industrial infrastructure, which CIR verifies but does not track quantitatively.
Partially destroyed factory of US company Flex LLC, Mukachevo (Zakarpattia Oblast), 21 August [48.414083, 22.703746]. (Source: pryamamova via Telegram).