Government camp: Dispute over the SPLM nomination
Monytuil has been a leading political figure in what is now Unity State since 2013 and served as governor of Unity in 2013–15, of the then Northern Liech State in 2015–20, and of Unity again from 2020 to May 2024. He is also the chair of the SPLM party branch in Unity State. President Salva Kiir reappointed Monytuil as full governor in March 2026 and kept him on as caretaker governor when he dissolved the government on 22 September. Monytuil is accused of seeking the party’s nomination for the December governorship election despite a reported presidential bar on caretaker officials contesting the upcoming elections. The party’s primaries to select the SPLM gubernatorial candidate stalled after organising committee member David Yau Yau left the state capital, Bentiu, in late October, after alleged disputes with state officials. The state government denied claims the disagreements were linked to its reported plans to defy presidential directives or obstruct the election process, independent Eye Radio said.
Links to pro-government militia
Monytuil has potential access to an armed support network in Mayom County, linked to local political allies and reportedly to elements of the national army. It could be mobilised if political tensions in Unity State escalate.
His support base is concentrated in Mayom, where an armed pro-government youth militia, the Terchuong, was established during South Sudan’s civil war. Mayom County Commissioner John Bol Mayak, a close Monytuil ally, has said he mobilised the militia in 2015. He told Radio Tamazuj that the group, which was dissolved by the previous governor in 2024, has been reconstituted since Monytuil’s return to office.
Since August, authorities in neighbouring Ruweng Administrative Area and Warrap State have blamed four deadly raids on armed youth from Unity State, in most reported to be from Mayom.[1] Raids on 9 August 2026 in Tonj North County, Warrap, reported by Radio Tamazuj; on 6 October near Pariang in Ruweng, reported by Radio Tamazuj; in Ruweng on 18 October, reported by Radio Tamazuj; on 26 October in Tonj North, reported by Eye Radio. Mayom County officials have disputed at least one of these allegations, Radio Tamazuj reported. Two of the raids targeted cattle camps in August and October. There is currently no evidence that these attacks were directed at Monytuil’s political rivals or connected to the ongoing nomination dispute.
There are indications that Mayom’s armed youth networks have links to elements in the security forces. A [GRAPHIC] Sudans Post investigation into the 1 March massacre in Ruweng’s Abiemnom County – which the authorities blamed on rebel groups, but some locals attributed to armed youth from Mayom – claimed that a general from the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) 4th Division mobilised and armed the Mayom youth militia in January 2026. While there is no clear indication that these groups are currently being mobilised for political purposes, their connections to Monytuil’s allies and elements of the SSPDF suggest he could have an armed network to draw on if tensions escalate. This is a particular concern given the fragility of Unity State’s political and security environment.
SPLA/M-IO: Rival leadership claims lead to clashes
After opposition leader and then first vice president Riek Machar was placed under house arrest in March 2025 and charged with treason, deputy SPLM-IO leader Nathaniel Oyet assumed the role of acting chair.
On 31 August 2026, however, the movement’s Political Bureau, its senior political decision-making body, suspended Oyet and named Interim Secretary-General Regina Joseph Kaba as interim deputy chair, effectively making her the movement’s acting leader, Radio Tamazuj reported. The group’s military command backed her appointment, according to Sudans Post. Machar backed Kaba in a statement on 2 November, Eye Radio reported.
Oyet rejected the move, maintaining that he remains acting chair, accusing the government of using Machar’s trial to undermine the movement, and vowing to continue armed resistance against the government, according to Sudans Post.
On Facebook, accounts aligned with each faction have accused the other of working with the government in Juba. A 14 October statement by the SPLM-IO Students League in Bentiu, which backs Kaba, issued following clashes between the factions in Adok Port, alleged that Oyet-aligned forces were cooperating with the SSPDF and that SSPDF soldiers were involved in the fighting. These claims could not be verified. The SSPDF told Radio Tamazuj that its forces in Leer observed the 13–14 October clashes without intervening.
The leadership dispute has produced rival opposition appointments in Unity State, where the SPLA/M-IO runs its own administration in the rural areas it controls, led by military governors and county commissioners. These are posts within the movement rather than candidacies in the December elections. On 14 September, Oyet named John Turuk Khor, commander of the SPLA-IO’s Division 4A, as the movement’s military governor for Unity, while Kaba’s faction backed Dhoal Koryom Lingling for the same position, Sudans Post reported. It remains unclear whether Turuk accepted Oyet’s appointment. Sudans Post has since described this as having effectively created “rival opposition military administrations” in the state.
The state government retains control of Bentiu and the main county towns, while SPLM/A-IO forces retain influence across significant parts of the rural hinterland, mainly in rural Rubkona, Guit and parts of Koch, Sudans Post reported on 14 September. It appears that the opposition leadership dispute is now playing out in these rural areas, where the two sides have turned against each other
The two factions clashed at Unity State’s Adok Port on 13-14 October, Kaljak in Rubkona County on 25 October, and in Nordhiech, Leer County around 30 October.[2] Reports of deaths at Adok Port alone range from eight to 29, according to Radio Tamazuj and Sudans Post respectively.
The fighting has also disrupted civilian life. Examinations for around 2,000 primary school pupils in Leer were postponed in November due to the violence, Radio Tamazuj reported, although no figures are available for civilian deaths or displacement.
Potential implications
- Further SPLA-IO clashes in Leer and Rubkona. Neither Oyet nor Kaba has backed down following Machar’s 2 November court testimony. Their competing leadership claims and rival appointments suggest tensions will remain high.
- Risk of armed mobilisation around the SPLM nomination. The reported links between armed youth groups, the governor’s political base, and the SSPDF’s 4th Division raise concerns about potential armed mobilisation to support Monytuil’s gubernatorial bid.
- A weaker opposition position ahead of elections. The SPLM/A-IO split could further strengthen government control beyond Bentiu, particularly if commanders and troops in Division 4A and other rural units are split between Oyet and Kaba.
- Civilian harm likely exceeds what has been reported. There are no reliable figures for civilian deaths or displacement from the recent clashes in Leer. Monitoring is also limited by the lack of sources reporting from southern Unity.
Continued monitoring
CIR will continue to monitor which military commanders and units follow Oyet or Kaba, whether the national army is supporting either faction, who is currently supplying weapons to armed youth in Mayom, and when the stalled SPLM primaries will resume. These factors may indicate how far violence in Unity State could spread ahead of the December elections.
[1] Raids on 9 August 2026 in Tonj North County, Warrap, reported by Radio Tamazuj; on 6 October near Pariang in Ruweng, reported by Radio Tamazuj; in Ruweng on 18 October, reported by Radio Tamazuj; on 26 October in Tonj North, reported by Eye Radio.
[2] Clashes at Adok Port on 13-14 October, reported by Sudans Post; at Kaljak on 25 October, reported by Sudans Post; and at Nordhiech around 30 October, reported by Radio Tamazuj.
